COP30: The Stories That Could Shape Climate Coverage This Year
What to watch at COP30: UK, forest finance and nature
It’s that time of year again, ladies and gentlemen. COP30 is upon us!
Royalty, heads of state, ministers, delegates, lobbyists and charities are among the tens of thousands descending on Belém, Brazil, for this year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference.
This region is the home of the Amazon rainforest, one of the world’s most vital ecosystems, which stores billions of tonnes of carbon and is home to thousands of indigenous communities and species.
The conference officially kicks off on 10 November but the world leaders summit, to be attended by Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and Prince William, will take place this week to ease the strain on local accommodation.
Unfortunately, COP30 isn’t shaping up to be the landmark nature event many had hoped for. Delegates (and wanna-be attendees) have faced a severe shortage of affordable accommodation and high prices.
Meanwhile, the devastation caused by Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica has thrown the urgency of climate action into sharp focus once again. At least two people also died last week in flooded basements in New York after record rainfall hit parts of the US city.
Although many UK media outlets are sending smaller teams than in previous years, journalists will still be watching closely. Every newsroom will cover COP differently but here are some of the storylines we’ll be tracking:
1) The UK delegation. Prince William and Prime Minister Keir Starmer will provide plenty of headlines early on. The Prince is attending on behalf of The King, while the PM will seek to keep the UK at the centre of global climate diplomacy. Expect a politically charged start with lots of opportunities for organisations to react to key speeches and announcements.
2) The United States. All eyes will be on Washington’s stance. Reports suggest Donald Trump will not send senior officials to the talks as he doubles down on fossil fuels. This follows the collapse of a landmark deal to curb global shipping emissions, torpedoed by the US and Saudi Arabia. Trump had dismissed the plan as a “green scam” and threatened tariffs against nations backing it, a signal that US influence could once again shape the global climate agenda.
3) Forest finance. You can’t hold a COP in the Amazon without talking about forests. Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is pushing a new $125 billion fund, called Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF). He has pledged an initial $1 billion himself and has called on allies, including the UK, to contribute. But reports suggest the British government is split over whether to support it. Will Chancellor Rachel Reeves back Lula’s appeal? Time will tell.
4) Adaptation and NDCs. I’m fastening my green hat and getting into the weeds on this next one. It’s tricky to know what main story will emerge from COP but adaptation and nationally determined contributions (NDCS) are likely to be strong contenders. A key ask for governments ahead of the conference was to submit new NDCs covering the period up to 2035. NDCs are climate action plans submitted by each country under the Paris Agreement to outline their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Countries had agreed these updated climate plans should be done nine to 12 months before the COP but many have yet to submit new NDCs. Another key goal for this COP is to make progress on adaptation - particularly around finance. This would facilitate the tracking of adaptation efforts - which means taking action to prepare for and adjust to the current and projected impacts of climate change.
5) Nature’s comeback. There is likely to be a stronger emphasis on the role of nature in addressing climate change than has been seen at recent COPs. This could turn into an interesting narrative for the media, especially in the age of some politicians being more net zero sceptic and Trump’s “build baby build” mantra.
I won’t be attending COP this year (the first one I’m missing since COP26 in Glasgow) but I’ll be keeping a close eye on proceedings from the UK.
Remember folks, keep this just between us! We’re off the record.
Thank you for reading Off the Record! There are nearly 2,900 subscribers now! I want to make my weekly newsletter as helpful as I can, so please get in contact if there’s anything specific you want to see.
I also offer media masterclasses for brands/PR agencies looking to sharpen their storytelling, improve their relationships with journalists and boost their media coverage. If you’re interested, please email me at stephspyro1@gmail.com
You can also follow my journalism on instagram, Twitter/X and BlueSky.